A lot of bets on Polymarket are drawing attention to the unlikely way Sam Bankman-Fried could go free, which was sparked by a surprising turn of events in another high-profile crypto case. Traders have raised the chances of a presidential pardon for Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) to about 12% in one market and even higher in another since Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao got a suspended sentence.
What the markets are saying
In the “Who will Trump pardon in 2025” market, SBF’s odds went from about 5.6% to about 12% in less than half a day, with more than $6.5 million in bets placed. A single bet close to $302,000 showed that investors were interested in SBF’s possible release.
A different market that asked if SBF would be “Released from custody in 2025” rose sharply before falling back down. It went up to 19.1% for a short time before settling around 15.5%.
Context and odds that depend on context
SBF is still appealing a 25-year federal sentence for fraud and conspiracy related to the collapse of FTX. Legal experts say that important changes are unlikely to happen before the end of the year, which means that a presidential pardon is a narrow and uncertain way to get out of jail.
People have been talking about how different it is from CZ’s case. Many people thought that CZ’s crime was “compliance-related” rather than the kind of theft that defined SBF’s charges. This led to a lot of discussion in the crypto industry about proportionality and accountability.
How people see the chances
Jake Chervinsky, a crypto lawyer, was very doubtful that Trump would pardon SBF. He said this because SBF is a controversial Democratic donor and his case is politically sensitive. Some people who watch DC politics think that pardoning SBF would be politically risky and not likely to happen soon.
Others say that pardons are rare and hard to predict, and that the public story about SBF is complicated, divisive, and connected to a larger cultural debate about how to regulate cryptocurrency, which makes it hard to figure out the odds.
Different points of view in the debate
People who want Trump to get a pardon often say that his patient approach to political risk could make strategic moves, like going after famous people with complicated legal stories, part of a bigger story. They point out that pardons are not common and are up to the president, but they are not impossible.
Critics say that pardoning SBF would make it hard to hold people accountable, especially since the amount of money stolen from customers was so large and it would hurt investor trust in crypto markets as a whole.
What makes markets move
It looks like the sudden changes in odds are caused by a mix of high-stakes bets, changes in public opinion after CZ’s case, and ongoing debates about how much presidential clemency could mean in cases of white-collar crime.
People who trade on sites like Polymarket often look for bets or hedges that are not equal in value and are related to high-profile legal cases. In this case, the renewed talk about pardons in the crypto world seems to have made people want to buy SBF-related positions.
What to look for in the future
Formal statements from Trump or new developments in SBF’s appeal could quickly change what the market thinks.
These odds will probably change over time as the political climate around relative clemency decisions and the administration’s position on crypto regulation change.
It’s important to remember that odds in prediction markets are not a sure thing; they only show what bettors think and how much money is available at that time.
Bottom line
Some traders now think that the unlikely is more likely, thanks to a big change in another crypto case. But experts say that a presidential pardon for SBF is still unlikely, as the chances in the real world are still stuck in a web of legal and political issues. The next few weeks and any new official news will be very important in figuring out if market bets match what happens.
